Development and validation of age-specific risk prediction models for primary ovarian insufficiency (POI) in long-term survivors of childhood cancer: a report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and St Jude Lifetime Cohort
Cindy Im et al (Lancet Oncol 2023 Nov 13:S1470-2045(23)00510-7.doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(23)00510-7. Online ahead of print.) aimed to develop and validate models to predict age-specific POI risk among long-term survivors of childhood cancer, suing data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS), and data from 5-year survivors in the St Jude Lifetime Cohort (SJLIFE) with ovarian status clinically ascertained using hormone measurements (menopause defined by follicle stimulating hormone >30 mIU/mL and oestradiol <17 pg/mL) and medical chart or questionnaire review.
Findings: 7891 female CCSS survivors (922 with POI) were included in the development of the POI risk prediction model, and 1349 female SJLIFE survivors (101 with POI) were included in the validation study. Median follow-up from cancer diagnosis was 23·7 years (IQR 18·3-30·0) in CCSS and 15·1 years (10·4-22·9) in SJLIFE. Between the ages of 21 and 40 years, POI prevalence increased from 7·9% (95% CI 7·3-8·5) to 18·6% (17·3-20·0) in CCSS and 7·3% (5·8-8·9) to 14·9% (11·6-19·1) in SJLIFE. Age-specific logistic regression models considering ovarian radiation dosimetry or prescribed pelvic and abdominal radiation dose, along with individual chemotherapy predictors, performed well in CCSS. In the SJLIFE validation, the prescribed radiation dose model performed well (AUROC 0·88-0·95), as did a simpler model that considered any exposures to pelvic or abdominal radiotherapy or alkylators (0·82-0·90). Addition of the polygenic risk predictor significantly improved the average positive predictive value (from 0·76 [95% CI 0·63-0·89] to 0·87 [0·80-0·94]; p=0·029) among CCSS survivors treated with ovarian radiation and chemotherapy.
Interpretation: POI risk prediction models using treatment information showed robust prediction performance in adult survivors of childhood cancer.